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Henri Maurer
- 19 November 2018
- STATISTICS PAPER SERIES - No. 29Details
- Abstract
- This statistical paper describes and explains a specific tool enabling statisticians to gain additional insights and assess the consistency of government finance statistics (GFS): analysis of the deficit-debt adjustment (DDA), or stock-flow adjustment (SFA). The DDA reconciles two key government indicators – the government deficit/surplus and government debt. DDA analysis helps to establish whether these statistics are plausible and reliable by exploring the consistency between governments’ non-financial accounts (measuring the government deficit/surplus) and financial accounts (measuring government debt at market value). It also takes into account valuation differences between the financial accounts and government debt measured at face value (Maastricht debt). Recent years’ GFS for the euro area aggregate and the individual euro area countries (and, where useful, other EU Member States’ data) are used to illustrate DDA analysis. The dataset bridging the government deficit and the change in government debt reveals many aspects of a government’s economic policies. For instance, the components of the DDA shed light on its equity investments or privatisations, its use of investment in financial reserves, some aspects of its debt management and the accumulation of fiscal or social arrears.
- JEL Code
- H62 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Deficit, Surplus
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
- 22 November 2017
- STATISTICS PAPER SERIES - No. 26Details
- Abstract
- This paper reviews the development of the quality of the main fiscal data released through the Excessive Deficit Procedures (EDP) since the euro's introduction. As such, this paper presents the outcome of various econometric tests based on all the vintages of the annual main fiscal data (deficit, change in debt) to assess whether qualitative progress took place over the years. Sound Government Financial Statistics (GFS) data are indeed crucial in the context of the fiscal surveillance carried out in the EU. Therefore, we find it useful to carry out a study responding to former criticisms which pointed out that Member States were beautifying their fiscal data and especially their first notified deficit. It was often assumed that Member States could abuse the initial recording of components which bridge the deficit to the change in debt (the so-called deficit-debt adjustments components). To assess this qualitative development properly, the study goes beyond the simple description of the revisions. It proposes innovative ways to identify whether each step of the revision is caused by the upward change in deficit. The study also seeks to better identify the datasets which triggered the qualitative progress observed.
- JEL Code
- H81 : Public Economics→Miscellaneous Issues→Governmental Loans, Loan Guarantees, Credits, Grants, Bailouts
M48 : Business Administration and Business Economics, Marketing, Accounting→Accounting and Auditing→Government Policy and Regulation
- 9 April 2015
- STATISTICS PAPER SERIES - No. 7Details
- Abstract
- This paper summarises the accounting principles and methodology used by statisticians within the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) to assess the impact on the government
- JEL Code
- H81 : Public Economics→Miscellaneous Issues→Governmental Loans, Loan Guarantees, Credits, Grants, Bailouts
Annexes - 14 April 2010
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 109Details
- Abstract
- In mid-September 2008, a global financial crisis erupted which was followed by the most serious worldwide economic recession for decades. As in many other regions of the world, governments in the euro area stepped in with a wide range of emergency measures to stabilise the financial sector and to cushion the negative consequences for their economies. This paper examines how and to what extent these crisis-related interventions, as well as the fall-out from the recession, have had an impact on fiscal positions and endangered the longer-term sustainability of public finances in the euro area and its member countries. The paper also discusses the appropriate design of fiscal exit and consolidation strategies in the context of the Stability and Growth Pact to ensure a rapid return to sound and sustainable budget positions. Finally, it reviews some early lessons from the crisis for the future conduct of fiscal policies in the euro area.
- JEL Code
- E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy - Network
- Eurosystem Monetary Transmission Network