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Bettina Landau
Economics
- Current Position
-
Senior Adviser
- Fields of interest
-
Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
- Education
- 1991-1994
Diplom in Economics, J. W. Goethe University Frankfurt
- 1986-1989
Diplom in Business Administration, Fachhochschule der Deutschen Bundesbank
- Professional experience
- 2018-2020
Head of Section Money, Credit and Financial Accounts, Monetary Analysis Division, Directorate General Monetary Policy, European Central Bank
- 2014-2017
Adviser, Monetary Policy Strategy Division, Directorate General Monetary Policy, European Central Bank
- 2013
Head of Section Output, Demand and Labour Markets, Euro Area Macroeconomic Developments Division, Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank
- 2011-2012
Principal Economist, Monetary Policy Stance Division, Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank
- 2000-2010
Principal Economist, Euro Area Macroeconomic Developments, Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank
- 1994-2000
Economist, Deutsche Bundesbank, Directorate Economics
- 31 July 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2024Details
- Abstract
- This article provides a technical evaluation of the performance of ECB/Eurosystem staff inflation projections since 2000. It complements the existing literature by examining the influence of HICP components as well as conditioning variables on the properties of HICP inflation projections, also taking into account potential time variation in forecast performance. The article shows how, from the low projection errors over the period leading up to the pandemic, Eurosystem/ECB staff forecast accuracy deteriorated in the face of atypical post-pandemic shocks before improving again since late 2022. However, it finds that the accuracy of Eurosystem/ECB staff projections of headline HICP inflation is broadly comparable to real-time market-based and private professional forecasts even after including the post-pandemic period of high inflation. The HICP forecast accuracy is comparable across main HICP components, including HICP excluding energy and food (HICPX), although HICPX inflation projections tend to show smaller errors than headline inflation projections. The article finds that ECB/Eurosystem staff inflation projections are unbiased overall but exhibit specific periods over the last 25 years in which this unbiasedness broke down. It also points to some rigidities in ECB/Eurosystem staff inflation projections, in particular for HICPX, which might explain part of this occasional bias. Finally, the article underscores the contribution of not only oil price assumptions but also other conditioning assumptions to the rigidities, occasional bias and reduced accuracy of ECB/Eurosystem staff projections of HICP inflation.
- JEL Code
- C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 5 July 2023
- THE ECB BLOGDetails
- JEL Code
- E17 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E27 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E47 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 7 October 2021
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2600Details
- Abstract
- This paper develops a Bayesian quantile regression model with time-varying parameters (TVPs) for forecasting inflation risks. The proposed parametric methodology bridges the empirically established benefits of TVP regressions for forecasting inflation with the ability of quantile regression to model flexibly the whole distribution of inflation. In order to make our approach accessible and empirically relevant for forecasting, we derive an efficient Gibbs sampler by transforming the state-space form of the TVP quantile regression into an equivalent high-dimensional regression form. An application of this methodology points to a good forecasting performance of quantile regressions with TVPs augmented with specific credit and money-based indicators for the prediction of the conditional distribution of inflation in the euro area, both in the short and longer run, and specifically for tail risks.
- JEL Code
- C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
C52 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
C55 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Modeling with Large Data Sets?
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
- 30 September 2011
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 128Details
- Abstract
- The distributive trades sector, which is primarily accounted for by wholesale and retail trade, is not only economically important in its own right, but also relevant to monetary policy. Ultimately, it is retailers who set the actual prices of most consumer goods. They are the main interface between producers of consumer goods and consumers, with around half of private consumption accounted for by retail trade. The
- JEL Code
- E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 16 June 2010
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 113Details
- Abstract
- This report aims to analyse euro area energy markets and the impact of energy price changes on the macroeconomy from a monetary policy perspective. The core task of the report is to analyse the impact of energy price developments on output and consumer prices. Nevertheless, understanding the link between energy price fluctuations, inflationary pressures and the role of monetary policy in reacting to such pressure requires a deeper look at the structure of the economy. Energy prices have presented a challenge for the Eurosystem, as the volatility of the energy component of consumer prices has been high since the creation of EMU. At the same time, a look back into the past may not necessarily be very informative for gauging the likely impact of energy price changes on overall inflation in the future. For instance, the reaction of HICP inflation to energy price fluctuations seems to have been more muted during the past decade than in earlier periods such as the 1970s.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy - Network
- Eurosystem Monetary Transmission Network
- 11 November 2009
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1104Details
- Abstract
- In this paper we analyse in a mark-up framework the pass-through of commodity price and exchange rate shocks to the main components of producer and consumer prices. Thereby we link movements in prices at the different production stages as firms set their prices as a mark-up over production costs. The empirical results reveal significant linkages between different price stages in the euro area. The overall results are roughly in line with the literature and provide insight into the effects at different stages of the production chain. Non-energy commodity prices turn out to be important determinants of euro area prices.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 21 October 2005
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 535Details
- Abstract
- This study investigates the pricing behaviour of firms in the euro area on the basis of surveys conducted by nine Eurosystem national central banks, covering more than 11,000 firms. The results, robust across countries, show that firms operate in monopolistically competitive markets, where prices are mostly set following markup rules and where price discrimination is common. Around one-third of firms follow mainly time-dependent pricing rules while two thirds allow for elements of state-dependence. The majority of firms take into account past and expected economic developments in their pricing decisions. Price stickiness is mainly driven by customer relationships
- JEL Code
- E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
D40 : Microeconomics→Market Structure and Pricing→General - Network
- Eurosystem inflation persistence network
- 22 July 2004
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 374Details
- Abstract
- In this paper we investigate whether the forecast of the HICP components (indirect approach) improves upon the forecast of overall HICP (direct approach) and whether the aggregation of country forecasts improves upon the forecast of the euro-area as a whole, considering the four largest euro area countries. The direct approach provides clearly better results than the indirect approach for 12 and 18 steps ahead for the overall HICP, while for shorter horizons the results are mixed. For the euro area HICP excluding unprocessed food and energy(HICPX), the indirect forecast outperforms the direct whereas the differences are only marginal for the countries. The aggregation of country forecasts does not seem to improve upon the forecast of the euro area HICP and HICPX. This result has however to be taken with caution as differences appear to be rather small and due to the limited country coverage.
- JEL Code
- C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 2019
- International Cash Conference 2019, Cash in the age of payment diversityForecasting the Demand for Banknotes in the Euro Area
- 2000
- Discussion Paper 04/2000 Deutsche BundesbankCore inflation rates: A comparison of methods based on west German data