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Simona Delle Chiaie
- 17 May 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box analyses the dynamics of housing investment in the euro area and the United States and discusses the impact of the recent monetary policy tightening on future housing investment in the euro area. Building on the literature, the box argues that deeper mortgage markets, as reflected in higher levels of household mortgage indebtedness, securitisation and leverage, strengthen the transmission of monetary policy shocks to housing investment. In the euro area, where the mortgage markets are less deep, housing investment is found to react relatively less to monetary policy shocks than in the United States. As a result, housing investment in the euro area has been recently more sheltered from monetary policy tightening than housing investment in the United States. Despite this relative resilience of housing investment in the euro area, the box argues that most of the impact of tighter monetary policy in the euro area is still to materialise, thus clouding the outlook for housing investment.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 16 October 2018
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 51Details
- Abstract
- There is a strong co-movement in the prices of international commodities. This is explained by a single common factor that is closely related to fluctuations in global economic activity. The common factor, which is indicative of global demand pressures, explains a large share of commodity price fluctuations, and its importance has increased since the early 2000s, especially for oil and metal prices.
- JEL Code
- C51 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Construction and Estimation
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
Q02 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→General→Global Commodity Markets
- 16 November 2017
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2112Details
- Abstract
- In this paper we extract latent factors from a large cross-section of commodity prices, including fuel and non-fuel commodities. We decompose each commodity price series into a global (or common) component, block-specific components and a purely idiosyncratic shock. We find that the bulk of the fluctuations in commodity prices is well summarised by a single global factor. This global factor is closely related to fluctuations in global economic activity and its importance in explaining commodity price variations has increased since the 2000s, especially for oil prices.
- JEL Code
- C51 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Construction and Estimation
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
Q02 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→General→Global Commodity Markets
- 17 December 2009
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1130Details
- Abstract
- I estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model where the policymaker and the private sector have imperfect knowledge about potential output. The estimation of the structural parameters and of the monetary authorities’objectives is key to assess the quantitative relevance of the imperfect information problem and to evaluate the robustness of previous exercises based on calibration. The estimated model also allows me to revisit the Orphanides (2001, 2003) findings that the central bank can makes large and persistent mistakes to estimate potential output in response to productivity and cost shocks. I find that when real unit labor cost is used as a monetary policy indicator, the potential output uncertainty has quantitatively negligible consequences on policy behaviour and inflation dynamics.
- JEL Code
- E4 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit