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2019 Q2

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2019 Q2 inflation forecasts
  2019 2020 2021 Feb. 2020 Feb. 2021 2023
Mean point estimate 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.8
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 54 52 43 43 34 43
Probability distributions 2019 2020 2021 Feb. 2020 Feb. 2021 2023
<-1.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.40.4
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.41.4
0.0 to 0.4% 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.63.4
0.5 to 0.9% 13.6 11.6 9.3 11.1 11.58.8
1.0 to 1.4% 40.3 29.6 24.3 29.1 25.120.0
1.5 to 1.9% 31.3 34.3 35.3 34.7 33.231.5
2.0 to 2.4% 8.0 13.6 15.9 14.3 15.418.9
2.5 to 2.9% 2.1 4.6 6.3 4.7 5.98.8
3.0 to 3.4% 0.5 1.4 2.7 1.1 2.34.0
3.5 to 3.9% 0.1 0.2 1.0 0.1 0.81.8
>4.0% 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.30.9
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

2019 Q2 core inflation forecasts
  2019 2020 2021 Feb. 2020 Feb. 2021 2023
Mean point estimate 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.7
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 38 38 29 34 25 29
Probability distributions 2019 2020 2021 Feb. 2020 Feb. 2021 2023
<-1.0% 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.20.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.40.4
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.70.7
0.0 to 0.4% 2.7 2.6 2.1 3.0 2.03.4
0.5 to 0.9% 25.4 16.3 12.4 18.0 13.311.3
1.0 to 1.4% 53.0 37.5 29.5 39.3 31.024.0
1.5 to 1.9% 15.6 30.6 33.6 28.3 32.730.8
2.0 to 2.4% 1.9 9.7 14.6 8.5 13.418.3
2.5 to 2.9% 0.3 2.3 4.2 1.7 3.86.6
3.0 to 3.4% 0.1 0.3 1.9 0.3 1.62.8
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.1 0.71.1
>4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.20.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2019 Q2 real GDP growth forecasts
  2019 2020 2021 2019 Q4 2020 Q4 2023
Mean point estimate 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3
Number of replies 55 53 43 48 45 43
Probability distributions 2019 2020 2021 2019 Q4 2020 Q4 2023
<-1.0% 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.60.8
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.9 1.21.1
-0.5 to -0.1% 1.8 2.2 1.8 2.2 2.92.3
0.0 to 0.4% 6.3 6.1 6.3 6.2 7.16.0
0.5 to 0.9% 23.2 14.9 13.0 18.0 16.613.8
1.0 to 1.4% 42.1 33.0 30.5 35.5 32.727.6
1.5 to 1.9% 18.4 26.6 27.2 24.1 23.126.0
2.0 to 2.4% 5.3 9.6 12.3 7.9 9.313.0
2.5 to 2.9% 1.4 4.0 4.7 3.0 3.75.7
3.0 to 3.4% 0.3 1.5 2.1 1.0 1.42.4
3.5 to 3.9% 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.70.8
>4.0% 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.80.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2019 Q2 unemployment rate forecasts
  2019 2020 2021 Jan. 2020 Jan. 2021 2023
Mean point estimate 7.8 7.6 7.5 7.7 7.5 7.4
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5
Number of replies 51 49 39 42 35 38
Probability distributions 2019 2020 2021 Jan. 2020 Jan. 2021 2023
<5.5% 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.71.4
5.5 to 5.9% 0.5 1.2 1.5 0.9 1.42.7
6.0 to 6.4% 1.4 2.9 4.4 2.1 3.87.7
6.5 to 6.9% 4.1 9.7 13.2 6.1 11.816.5
7.0 to 7.4% 17.5 24.7 27.9 22.4 26.023.4
7.5 to 7.9% 45.2 32.7 27.5 37.3 28.319.0
8.0 to 8.4% 21.5 18.2 14.1 20.3 16.712.6
8.5 to 8.9% 6.2 6.4 6.1 6.3 6.87.0
9.0 to 9.4% 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.54.0
9.5 to 9.9% 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.12.4
10.0 to 10.4% 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.41.2
10.5 to 10.9% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.20.8
11.0 to 11.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.4
11.5 to 11.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.3
12.0 to 12.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.2
12.5 to 12.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.1
13.0 to 13.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.1
13.5 to 13.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.10.1
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0